renaissance 2

It’s just a few months until New Year. On 1 January 2009, according to my world population counter, there will be 6 872 741 131 human beings. That is 816 113 478 more mouths to feed than at the turn of the 21st century. In a mere 9 years we have added the equivalent of of the current population of Europe (491,018,683 people) and the USA (305,386,762 people) combined. I confess that this statistic concerns me a great deal, but not nearly as much as the impact the decisions the rest of us will be making over the next few decades, and how they will affect these 816 113 478 children between the ages of zero and nine.

Yesterday I decided to count the number of choices I made during the course of 24 hours. I made about 100 different decisions, from the trivial (which breakfast cereal to eat), to the more important (the structure of my presentation to the Integral University in Paris, for example). As it turns out, I decided against buying a large, spanking brand new coal-fired power station, which should be a source of relief to those of you concerned about global warming. Sadly, however, I am led to believe that a number of senior business leaders and politicians in China, America and Poland gave the go-ahead to plans for a few hundred of these deadly beasts in their countries just this week.

With 6 872 741 131 human beings on the planet taking 100 decisions a day each, we end up with roughly 687 billion choices a day. Of course, many of these decisions have little impact on the world outside the individual- and others have global consequences. In between are the billions of choices which when taken together, constitute a major shift in our world- such as the new perspectives which enabled the pioneers of the first Renaissance to make choices which led to the end of the medieval, feudal system, and the rise of middle class prosperity and technological progress. In the 21st century, we face yet another turning point in history, where the cluster of powerful social and technological developments over the past century create an unprecedented opportunity for us to create a second Renaissance. At the same time, we cannot be sure that we are not going to head into a post-modern equivalent of a New Dark Ages.  That is why we are at a turning point in civilisation, where every choice, every deed, counts.

If every person on our planet decided to make one hundred healthy, sustainable, wise and elegant choices every day, we would soon be living in the earthly equivalent of heaven. The opposite outcome, hell on earth, is what happens when we make lots of bad choices. Given the current rather messed up state of our planet, it appears, sadly, that the majority of our fellow humans have been making some pretty bad choices indeed. With less than 98 months left to a possible tipping point for runaway climate change, we simply cannot afford such mass stupidity if we wish to ensure the survival of the human race.

Perhaps what we need is a little more foresight, which is what enables people to understand the consequences of their decisions. Yet even people who know smoking causes cancer, carry on smoking, in the mistaken belief that they are somehow an exception to the rule and the statistics. As a matter of fact, most of us are at least marginally aware of the consequences of many of the short-sighted decisions we take, and yet we go ahead and “do it anyway”. This is the rather depressing conclusion of many decades of psychological research into the causes of cancer, obesity, car accidents and other preventable tragedies.

If we all had accurate foresight, perfect information and similar values and interests, then it might be possible to “let the market rule“, as so many neocons and libertarians advocate. But we don’t. We can see very clearly the consequences of poor deregulation and greed in the markets in the bloodbath that is the global financial markets right now. We can see how popular these choices have been with the voters who rate George Bush, Gordon Brown and Nicholas Sarkozy  at the lowest levels of any political leaders since polls began. While we know that we need freedom of choice, to learn and develop, we also need governments and regulation to protect private property, ensure that justice is done, contracts are enforced, security and stability provided and standards maintained.

Just after 9/11/2001, I was privileged to be asked to speak to Tony Blair’s policy advisers about social capital. I met a few times with the very impressive Geoff Mulgan, who was Tony’s right hand man and idea guru from his days at Demos (the think tank responsible for much of the good work done by Labour at the beginning of its first few terms).   There was much talk at that time of the “Third Way” between left-wing demands for governments intervention in most areas of life, and the right wing’s assertions that we needed to get government out of our lives as soon and as much as possible.

Right now, Barack Obama’s advisors are reading a punchy little book which helps put some teeth into “The Third Way” between left and right. It is called “Nudge“. This little gem argues coherently for the design of “choice architectures“, which enable us to provide citizens and consumers with freedom of choice while nudging them to make better choices as they choose. For example, we can promote healthy food in the school cafetaria by putting it at eye level on the shelves, while we make it a little harder for kids to select the doughnuts and colas by placing them in harder to reach locations. We can back this up with educational programs and information which explain the dangers of obesity, and help parents to create an environment in which their children will actively select the healthier options.

This may be one of the most powerful tools in the armoury we need to preserve a healthy biosphere. Both private enterprise and government need to get better at designing choice architectures which touch as many of the significant 100 daily decisions we make: what car should I buy, where should I live, how should I design/power my home or office,  what food I should eat, how to recycle, which stores and businesses to buy from, how to educate our children, and which political party and policies to vote for, and so on.

One of the deadliest myths circulating amongst “New Agers” at the moment is the idea that if they work on their own self-development, generate good intentions, meditate and get together with others doing the same thing, that there will be a big shift in human affairs as a result. There are many different varieties of these narcissistic, cult-like belief systems. This recipe for inaction is depriving the world of the beneficial input of some of the most intelligent and well-motivated people on the planet. Sadly, the road to hell is paved with good intentions, good affirmations and good vibrations.

Equally deadly is the inertia of the comfortable middle classes worldwide. Having “made it”, they can now rely on “them” to take care of things: them being the government, their boss, the healthcare system, the local community and so on. And when “they” are no longer delivering the goods, as is the case in many developed nations right now, we can join the media in blaming “them” for the mess, which neatly absolves anyone from having to do anything.

We need every able-bodied, well-intentioned person to engage directly with their communities, their organisations, their politicians and the rest of the world to endure the tough times ahead and ensure we create a second Renaissance and not a second Dark Ages.

Otherwise, you will find me by the pool reading Deepak Chopra, waiting for Chateau La Tour Apollinaire to become a seaside property (we are currently at 40m above sea level, so it will just take another 2-3 degrees centigrade warming to release enough water from the ice caps to ensure that beach balls and plastic dolphins will be on sale nearby). Of course, I will blame “them”, and meditate regularly to ensure that I don’t suffer too many panic attacks as refugees from North Africa swarm at our gates begging for a crust of baguette.

Basically, its up to you, to me and to everyone else we know and care about, to do whatever we can, as soon as we can, to make this great shift. And there really is a very large pot of gold at the end of this rainbow: a viable, thriving world for our children and grandchildren.